According to some analysts, Biden’s Vote Tallies Violate Benford’s Law, as all of the other candidates’ tallies follow Benford’s law across the country, except for Biden’s when he gets in a tight race. There is, in fact, statistical evidence to suggest that something unnatural occurred in various states and counties. Benford's Law and the US 2020 Election. Biden's just had a normal distribution clustered a bit below 500. Much of the analysis behind these posts appears to have originated with Rajat Gupta's DIY Election Fraud Analysis Using Benford's Law tutorial from September 2020, which provides a guide for how to apply Benford's Law to evaluate election results using spreadsheet applications like … Benford's Law is a technique to screen for fraud in a large number of numeric records. It’s the same reason that if you measure the heights of all your friends in inches, you’ll find that doesn’t follow Benford’s distribution. According to Google reports, all over the world, people are searching for two important questions after the US Election results. Using Benford’s Law 49 Second Digit Test The second digit test is also a high-level test designed to test conformity or reasonableness. User "cjph8914" on GitHub has created a repository, 2020_benfords, which analyses the 2020 presidential election results for various districts and compares them with the expectation from Benford's law. Given that Wikipedia is already changing its tune on the reliability of Benford's Law in detecting fraud, it's obvious that those utilizing it to analyze the election results are right over the target. Election Irregularities Call for a Full Investigation. 2020 Presidential election: Analysis of Maricopa County results using Benford’s Law and other tests. The establishment media are ignoring, suppressing, and even dismissing altogether an enormous amount of evidence that indicates significant voting irregularities took place during the 2020 presidential election. I have received many requests to apply Benford’s Law to some of the results for the 2020 presidential election. Note from the Editor: some sites tried to use Benford's law and this blog to "prove" election fraud by democrats in 2020 US Presidential Election. Ryan McNally. From Wikipedia: Benford's law, also called the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. It has been applied to detect the voting frauds in Iranian 2009 election and various other applications including forensic investigations. Let’s go to the expert. Among these efforts are those that employ Benford's Law, with the most common application being an attempt to proclaim some election or another fraud free or replete with fraud. Benford's Law is especially suited to detect fraud in datasets like elections. A alternative media company called Brasil Paralelo started a research on the Benford’s law and committed to use the law in the 2018 elections. Usually these claims are pronounced more by losing parties. Benford's law, also called the Newcomb–Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. This Twitter thread shows how statistical analysis demonstrates that the excessively pro-Biden electoral counts are obviously fraudulent. This is what described by Wikipedia: Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud Joseph Deckert, Mikhail Myagkov, and Peter C. Ordeshook University of Oregon 97403 and California Institute of Technology 91124 e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author) The proliferation of elections in even those states that are arguably anything but democratic has given rise to A fundamental question is why we should expect Benford’s Law to apply to vote count data. The way Benford’s law works is you take a bunch of numbers, for example deposit amounts that a business has recorded over the course of year, and for each of those amounts you record the first digit of the deposit. As extra footage I compare the 2020 results to the 2016 results, and I also analyze Mr. Jo Jorgensen’s numbers. I review the Maricopa County 2020 presidential election results on a precinct by precinct basis using Benford’s Law and a few other forensic analytics tests including correlation. # H_o: vote count data fits Benford's Law distribution # H_a: vote count data does not fit Benford's Law distribution # # all the pvalue are well under 0.05, thus not enough confidence to reject # null hypothesis. So does mathematics in terms of the votes from precincts. Benford's law also named "First-Digit Law". Numbers beginning with a 1 occur roughly 30% of the time, and are six times more common than numbers beginning with a 9. In the 2009 elections in Iran, the number of votes for one candidate in the country’s different electoral districts did not follow Benford’s Law. Joe Biden’s votes violate Benford’s Law (Mathematics) John Todd Roberts Uncategorized November 8, 2020 1 Minute. Benford's Law and the 2020 Election. It has been applied for fraud detection of elections, such as 2004 US presidential election and 2009 German federal election. My Benford’s Law analysis shows no sign of intentional or unintentional errors. Ryan McNally. Previous tests showed that the 2010 elections were fine and raised some doubts about the 2014 elections. For my community contribution I thought I might consider my civic community in addition to my academic EDAV community :) I have seen some claims of election fraud online in recent days following the election, so thought I might take a look for myself and publish the findings. That is a reasonable argument he makes and the guy does know how to perform statistical tests. Clever Math Prof : A major flaw in applying Benford's law to the Milwaukee results is that the logarithmic distribution - how many "powers of tens" there are - in the numbers of votes per ward in Milwaukee is very narrow. Today we are Fact-checking the claims related to the 2020 US election results. I critiqued it yesterday. Benford’s law or the first-digit law, is used to check if a set of numbers are naturally occurring or manually fabricated. My Benford’s Law analysis shows no sign of … While a legitimate election would show a relatively even distribution of votes within the Benford’s law model, the 2020 election prominently shows an anomalous distribution of votes for Biden, even as Trump’s votes followed a normal distribution pattern that … Using Benford’s Law to avoid corporate chicanery: James Saft. Share via: Benford’s Law is a fun statistical phenomenon that this blog has explored a couple of times, most notably here.Benford has gained a sudden new popularity among 2020 election conspiracy sites, alleging huge vote rigging, but only in states where Donald Trump lost. Today, armed with any version of Microsoft Excel, CPAs can count the leading digits contained in virtually any data set, chart the findings, and compare the results to Benford's curve to see if that data set obeys the expectations set forth by Benford's Law. Much is being made of Benford’s Law. Prime Numbers and Benford's Law; Using the F-Score to Detect Accounting Fraud; References . These same deviations are occurring in the voting counts currently being reported in the 2020 election. GitHub Gist: instantly share code, notes, and snippets. by Himalaya Australia, November 7th, 2020. As extra footage I compare the 2020 results to the 2016 results, and I also analyze Mr. Jo Jorgensen’s numbers. Before getting into the topic at hand, let me remind the forum about it's policy on discussing the 2020 election. Joe Biden’s votes violate Benford’s Law, President Trump’s do not. For example, one thing that doesn’t conform to Benford’s Law is the 2020 US Presidential Election results. One of the ways to detect fraud, especially when analyzing tax returns, general ledgers and other items that contain a large amount of numerical data is by applying Benford’s Law. Posted by conservatively jennifer November 8, 2020 November 15, 2020 Posted in General Tags: benford's law, biden 2020, Election, election 2020, stealing the election, trump 2020, voter fraud I have been traveling this week and unable to follow much of the discussion about specific voter fraud allegations. Benford's Law is a mathematical and statistical study to determine if there are any anomalies in data that is collected. Election fraud is difficult to be detected especially in developing countries undergoing multiple dimensional transitions. You can’t say there is no evidence of election fraud in the 2020 presidential race. Caesar emerged victorious in the war with Pompey and he was definitely STO … Abstract. “Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud.” Political Analysis, vol. These final results are more predictable and follow the expected counts more closely, but still exhibit expected deviations.
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